Overview:

A new poll released by Emerson College shows Senator Ed Markey with just a five-point lead over Representative Seth Moulton in the Democratic primary, with 29 percent of voters still undecided. The poll also shows that none of the state's top elected officials have a favorable rating of 50 percent or higher among Massachusetts voters. The survey also asked about several ballot questions, including decreasing the state income tax rate and bringing back rent control, which received 61 percent support among voters. The poll surveyed 1,000 Massachusetts voters, with a credibility interval of plus or minus 4.5 percent.

BOSTON – The primary between Sen. Ed Markey and his Democratic challenger, Rep. Seth Moulton, has been somewhat of a sleepy affair, apart from jabs over progressive values and the involvement of “dark money” groups.

Leave it to Emerson College’s polling unit to toss a firecracker under their feet four months before voters go to polls, and weeks before Democratic insiders head to Worcester for their state convention on May 30. Emerson released a survey Thursday morning that shows Markey with just a five-point lead over Moulton.

The poll has Markey receiving 37 percent to Moulton’s 32 percent, with 29 percent undecided. Two other candidates, Alexander Rikleen and William Gates, each received 1 percent or less.

Other polls, from Suffolk University/Boston Globe and the University of New Hampshire, in recent months have shown double-digit leads for Markey. For example, the UNH poll had Markey leading Moulton 46 percent to 33 percent in April. More polling in the next few months, coupled with how delegates vote at the convention, could provide a sense of whether the Emerson poll is a trend of tightening or an outlier.

“Senator Markey leads the Democratic primary by 13 points among registered Democrats, while Rep. Moulton holds a 38 percent to 32 percent edge among unenrolled voters,” Spencer Kimball, the Emerson polling unit’s executive director, said in a statement. “Markey leads women 37 percent to 29 percent, while men are essentially split, with 38 percent backing Moulton and 37 percent Markey.”

The poll also tested the favorability of the state’s top elected officials among Massachusetts voters, beyond just those weighing in on a Democratic primary, finding that none cracked 50 percent.

Gov. Maura Healey had a 45 percent favorable rating among Massachusetts voters. Thirty-five percent gave her an unfavorable rating, and 17 percent said they were neutral.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who was reelected in 2024, has a 48 percent favorable rating, 35 percent unfavorable, and 14 percent neutral. Michelle Wu, who handily won reelection as Boston’s mayor in 2025, garnered a 45 percent favorable rating, as 34 percent gave her an unfavorable rating and 16 percent expressed a neutral stance.

The poll also showed Markey, who turns 80 this year, with a 37 percent favorable rating, coupled with a 35 percent unfavorable rating, and 23 percent were neutral. Moulton, 47, came in at 31 percent favorable and 26 percent unfavorable.

The survey, conducted on May 3 and May 4, also asked about a few of the many ballot questions headed towards voters in November. On the decrease in the state income tax rate to 4 percent from 5 percent, 62 percent of voters said they’d vote yes, 19 percent said no, and 20 percent weren’t sure how they’d vote.

Another hot-button ballot question, one that would bring back rent control, received 61 percent in support, 26 percent in opposition and 14 percent said they weren’t sure.

Fifty percent of voters said they were interested in switching from a party primary system to an all-party system, where all candidates would be on the same ballot regardless of party. The top two candidates would advance to the final election.

Twenty-nine percent said they’d vote no, and 21 percent were not sure how they’d vote.

The poll surveyed 1,000 Massachusetts voters, with the sample size of likely Democratic primary voters coming in at 451. The sample size has a credibility interval, which is similar to a margin of error, of plus or minus 4.5 percent. The credibility interval for the entire sample size of 1,000 is 3 percent.

The survey came days after the formation of a ballot committee in opposition to the primary system, chaired by Jordan Berg Powers, a Worcester-based consultant who previously served as executive director of the progressive advocacy group Mass Alliance.

The Coalition for a Healthy Democracy is behind the question and has the backing of former Democratic candidate for governor Danielle Allen, former MassGOP chair Jennifer Nassour and Auditor Diana DiZoglio.

Gintautas Dumcius is editor of MASSterlist, where a version of this article originally appeared. Reach him at gdumcius@stateaffairs.com.